Development and External Validation of [18F]FDG PET-CT-Derived Radiomic Models for Prediction of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Growth Rate

Objective (1): To develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model using radiomic features (RFs) extracted from [18F]FDG PET-CT to predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) growth rate. Methods (2): This retrospective study included 98 internal and 55 external AAA patients undergoing [18F]FDG PET-CT. RFs were extracted from manual segmentations of AAAs using PyRadiomics. Recursive feature elimination (RFE) reduced features for model optimisation. A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) was developed for AAA growth prediction and compared against Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Accuracy was evaluated via cross-validation, with uncertainty quantified using dropout (MLP), standard deviation (RF), and 95% prediction intervals (XGBoost). External validation used independent data from two centres. Ground truth growth rates were calculated from serial ultrasound (US) measurements or CT volumes. Results (3): From 93 initial RFs, 29 remained after RFE. The MLP model achieved an MAE ± SEM of 1.35 ± 3.2e−4 mm/year with the full feature set and 1.35 ± 2.5e−4 mm/year with RFE. External validation yielded 1.8 ± 8.9e−8 mm/year. RF, XGBoost, and SVM models produced comparable accuracies internally (1.4–1.5 mm/year) but showed higher errors during external validation (1.9–1.97 mm/year). The MLP model demonstrated reduced uncertainty with the full feature set across all datasets. Conclusions (4): An MLP model leveraging [18F]FDG PET-CT radiomics accurately predicted AAA growth rates and generalised well to external data. In the future, more sophisticated stratification could guide individualised patient care, facilitating risk-tailored management of AAAs.