Identifying key drivers of urban flood resilience for effective management: Insights and implications

• Establishing a flood resilience framework based on the resilience evolution process. • Identifying driving mechanism of flood resilience by integrating the BN-GIS model. • Evaluating urban flood resilience and identifying its spatial characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. • Providing insights for targeted flood risk management by revealing key factors influencing flood resilience. Enhancing urban resilience is a powerful strategy for mitigating floods caused by both intensive human activities and climate change. However, existing studies have limitations, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive framework for assessing flood resilience based on the resilience evolution process. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an integrated framework for evaluating urban flood resilience, incorporating Bayesian networks and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to explore the driving mechanisms behind flood resilience with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in China as a case study. The results indicated that: (1) inundation risk, population risk, and flooding mitigation were the most critical indicators influencing urban flood resilience; (2) Chengde and Tangshan emerged as key areas with high resistance capabilities, while Zhangjiakou and Baoding showed notable strengths in functional recovery; (3) the average value of urban flood resilience decreased from 0.58 under a 5-year rainfall return period to 0.54 under a 100-year rainfall return period, representing a 5.6 % decrease, with Zhangjiakou exhibiting the highest flood resilience. These findings are of significant importance for policymakers involved in flood risk management.