Estimating the carbon footprint of post-war reconstruction: toward a ‘greener’ recovery of Ukraine

Abstract The substantial investment required for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction will likely result in significant carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. This study quantitatively estimates the carbon footprint (CF) of the reconstruction process using an environmentally extended multi-region input–output analysis. Results indicate that the projected total CF over a ten-year reconstruction period will amount to 741 Mt-CO 2 exceeding Ukraine’s pre-war annual territorial emissions by more than fourfold. With the construction industry accounting for 77% of total emissions, there is an urgent need to modernize the sector and enhance its efficiency to achieve significant emission reductions. Key mitigation strategies include modernizing construction processes and implementing large-scale recycling of construction materials like concrete and steel. Beyond reducing emissions, these measures have the potential to foster industrial innovation, generate employment, and align Ukraine’s development trajectory with European Union environmental standards. This research highlights the necessity of integrating sustainability into Ukraine’s recovery pathway to ensure a greener, more sustainable future for Ukraine.