Invisible secularity: American theism beyond belief

Abstract It is often asserted that religion is changing rather than declining and that the usual indicators give a misleading impression of growing secularity. The evidence presented here suggests that on the contrary, social measures like affiliation and attendance may understate the weakening of personal religiosity. The apparent persistence of belief in God conceals erosion in its substance, strength, salience, and stability. The levels of religiosity and spirituality among the religiously unaffiliated are declining, notwithstanding the rapid expansion in their numbers. Moreover, belief has not just diminished among Americans who no longer belong to religious organizations: it is fading from one generation to the next among people who continue to belong. Americans are becoming less confident in the existence of God, less persuaded that God is active and judgmental, less inclined to see God as important, and less likely to express consistent conviction. Contrary to claims that apparent secularization masks enduring (if unorthodox) invisible religion, implicit religion, diffused religion, lived religion, and so on, the evidence shows that continuing religious involvement disguises waning religiosity. The research is based on six waves of the Baylor Religion Survey (2005–2021) in conjunction with the General Social Survey (1972–2022).