Energy Efficiency of the Russian Economy: Assessment and Forecast

The relevance of the study is determined by the fact that the current geopolitical situation makes the problem of ensuring energy efficiency of the Russian national economy particularly significant. The indicator "energy intensity of GDP" is used as a key indicator characterizing the efficiency of using energy resources. It is shown that in the period 2012-2022, there was a positive trend towards reducing the energy intensity of GDP due to energy conservation and increased energy efficiency. The regression analysis method was used to evaluate and predict the energy efficiency of the Russian economy. The formed regression model, which includes eight factor indicators, shows that the technological factor is a key driver of reducing the energy intensity of the GDP of the Russian Federation. The performed forecast estimates allow us to state that in the medium term, we should expect a return to the positive downward trend that took place in the period 2012-2022. Current and prospective estimates of the energy intensity of GDP suggest a likely increase in the efficiency of the Russian economy in terms of the use of energy resources.