Carbon Emission Effects of Land Use Structure Changes and Their Driving Factors: A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, China

Land use structure is an important factor affecting carbon emissions. Taking the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYRUA) as an example, this study uses transfer matrix, the carbon emission coefficient method, spatial analyses and geo-detectors to analyze the carbon emission effects of land use changes, as well as their spatial evolutionary characteristics and driving factors, based on the data of 31 cities during 2010–2020. This analysis led to three outcomes. (1) The carbon sinks are insufficient to counterbalance the carbon sources, and net carbon emissions continued to grow from 144.88 million t in 2010 to 160.37 million t in 2020 due to the expansion of construction land. (2) The high-value areas of net carbon emissions shifted from dispersed to concentrated, while low-value areas shifted from concentrated to dispersed and decreased in number. The spatial agglomeration pattern is dominated by High-High agglomeration (H-H) and Low-Low agglomeration (L-L) areas. (3) The spatial differentiation of carbon emissions from land use (LUCEs) is primarily influenced by population density, carbon emission intensity, and technological innovation. Moreover, the interactive effects of land use, energy-efficient technologies, population status, industrial structure, and economic development significantly amplify their individual impacts.