100 Years on: Exploring Stakeholder Perspectives on the Future of Ndumo Game Reserve, South Africa

Due to increasing anthropogenic pressures, the future for many protected areas is uncertain. This paper aims to provide stakeholder perspectives on the future of Ndumo Game Reserve (NGR), one of the oldest and most iconic protected areas in South Africa. The reserve was formally proclaimed in 1924 and has a long and proud history of conserving biodiversity of international significance. However, over the past two decades, land invasions and the extirpation of endangered species, such as rhino, raise serious concerns for the future of the reserve. A futures thinking methodology was applied to analyse different stakeholder perspectives against four main future conservation orientations namely: traditional conservation, new conservation, critical social science and market biocentrism. Interviews were conducted with past and present park personnel and surrounding community leaders. The interview results support a consensus view that the past reflects what is understood as traditional conservation, which is a bygone era in the history of NGR. The current reality supports a move towards new conservation where protected areas are expected to ensure sufficient benefit flows to meet current and future socio-economic expectations. This orientation is characterized by adopting an instrumental value for protected areas, relying on protected area monetization and access to resources. The perceived probable and most feared future scenarios also align with continued versions of new conservation and critical social science. The idealized future supports market-based ecocentrism.