Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050
Abstract Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO 2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.
Authors
- Gunnar Luderer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9057-6155)
- Panagiotis F. Fragkos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3596-0661)
- Alice Di Bella (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3814-7537)
- Pedro Rochedo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5151-0893)
- Vassilis Daioglou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6028-352X)
- Luiz Bernardo Baptista (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7016-1796)
- Paul Natsuo Kishimoto (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8578-753X)
- Thomas Le Gallic (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6760-5483)
- Rik van Heerden
- Oreane Y. Edelenbosch (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6588-5255)
- Sonia Yeh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4852-1177)
- Roberto Schaeffer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3709-7323)
- Robin Hasse (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1818-3186)
- Eleftheria Zisarou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2993-7238)
- Francesco Pietro Colelli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3507-8118)
- Giacomo Marangoni (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-380X)
- Julien Lefèvre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9702-7266)
- Charlie Wilson (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566)
- Florian Leblanc (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9154-5847)
- Johannes Emmerling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-9913)
- Bas van Ruijven (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1232-5892)
- Detlef Peter van Vuuren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831)
- Hazel Pettifor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3901-2693)
- Alessio Mastrucci (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780)
- Robert Pietzcker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711)
- Johanna Hoppe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6753-5090)
Institutions
- Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (BR)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Stockholm Environment Institute (GB)
- Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT)
- Khalifa University of Science and Technology (AE)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- AgroParisTech (FR)
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (IT)
- CIRED (FR)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- Technische Universität Berlin (DE)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Chalmers University of Technology (SE)
- Politecnico di Milano (IT)
- Delft University of Technology (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Energy
- Published
- 2025-02-05
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1
- Citations
- 49
- Primary Topic
- Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 17.81
Funders
- European Commission
- Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
- HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme