Immune cell profiles and predictive modeling in osteoporotic vertebral fractures using XGBoost machine learning algorithms

Our findings reveal an increased presence of CD4 + naïve T cells and central memory T cells in VF patients, indicating distinct adaptive immune responses. The XGBoost model identified Th1 cells, CD4 memory T cells, and hematopoietic stem cells as key predictors of VF. Notably, VF patients exhibited a reduction in Th1 cells and an enrichment of Th17 cells, which promote osteoclastogenesis and bone resorption. Gene expression analysis further highlighted an upregulation of osteoclast-related genes and a downregulation of osteoblast-related genes in VF patients, emphasizing the disrupted balance between bone formation and resorption. These findings underscore the critical role of immune cells in the pathogenesis of osteoporotic fractures and highlight the potential of XGBoost in identifying key biomarkers and therapeutic targets for mitigating fracture risk in osteoporotic patients.