Effects of Climate Change on the Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels in the Ayeyarwady Sea of Myanmar by Monte Carlo

Comprehensive understanding and prediction of storm surge are vital for coastal hazard mitigation and prevention. To estimate extreme sea levels in the Ayeyarwady Sea of Myanmar, where long-term tidal data are unavailable, a hydrodynamic model capable of simulating storm surge, along with the Monte Carlo method for generating synthetic cyclones, was utilized. The effectiveness of this modeling approach in the Ayeyarwady seas was confirmed through validation against tidal levels and storm surges. After analyzing 17 selected historical cyclones, a synthetic cyclone history comprising 354 events was developed. Simulations driven by the generated cyclones were subsequently conducted. Based on the simulation results, the 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, and 1000-year sea levels at the research station were estimated to be 4.43 m, 4.83 m, 6.06 m, and 7.24 m, respectively. With a 10% intensification of cyclones and a sea level rise of 310 mm, these four vital parameters were predicted to be 5.03 m, 5.48 m, 6.95 m, and 8.43 m. The results of this study confirmed the significant effects of cyclone intensification and sea level rise. Moreover, the results provide valuable scientific insights for flood management and engineering design in the Ayeyarwady Sea of Myanmar.