Assessing and predicting Bojiang lake area and LULC changes from 2000 to 2045

This study focuses on the Bojiang Lake Basin in Erdos, China, covering an area of 744.56 km 2 . While the global significance of lake ecosystems is well established, few studies have investigated the long-term dynamics of Bojiang Lake, particularly the interplay between human activities and climate change. This study assesses lake area fluctuations and land use/land cover changes in the Bojiang Lake Basin from 2000 to 2023 and provides projections for 2024–2045 using the CA-ANN model. From 2000–2011, the lake’s surface area decreased by approximately 80 %, shrinking from 9.78 km 2 to 1.92 km 2 . Between 2012 and 2023, the lake area recovered by 340 %, expanding to 8.49 km 2 , primarily due to increased precipitation and improved water management practices. Projections for 2024–2045 suggest further hydrological changes, with the lake area expected to increase by 42.67 %, reaching 12.17 km 2 by 2045. Additionally, vegetation cover is expected to rise by 1.97 %, while barren land will decrease by 3.10 %. However, built-up areas are predicted to grow by 47.73 %, reflecting ongoing urban expansion. These findings emphasize the need for integrated land and water management strategies to balance urban growth with environmental conservation. Sustainable planning is crucial for mitigating the impacts of urbanization and climate change, ensuring the long-term ecological stability of the Bojiang Lake Basin. • Bojiang Lake’s area decreased by 80 % (2000–2011) then recovered by 340 % (2012–2023) due to increased precipitation. • The CA-ANN model predicted a 42.67 % lake expansion by 2045, demonstrating improved water availability and management. • Sustainable land-water management strategies are essential to balance urban growth with ecological conservation. • This study integrated CA-ANN and Random Forest models to predict LULC changes in semi-arid lake ecosystems for management.