Dynamics of the human development index: trends and challenges

The Human Development Index (HDI) has had positive dynamics since 1990 as an overall indicator for evaluating achievements in three basic dimensions of human development: long and healthy life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. The challenges of recent years with short- and long-term consequences have changed the HDI trend. The article, based on the research of modern scientists and experts, analyzes the reasons for the current trajectory of the human development index and identifies its potential trends. The hypothesis of hysteresis as a new feature that determines the dynamics of the Human Development Index became the starting point for analyzing the direct and indirect consequences of the components forming hysteresis. The COVID-19 pandemic creates the phenomenon of hysteresis about human development, the intensification of military conflicts, and climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to the loss of human lives, reduced life expectancy, interrupted access to education, and caused economic recession in the global economy. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an economic recession, because of which the global GDP decreased, incomes decreased, and the trend toward a decrease in poverty level stopped against the background of a growing debt burden. In addition to the direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been an indirect impact on people’s health: deteriorating mental health due to isolation and domestic violence. The escalation of military conflicts led to the death of people and, an increase in the number of forcibly displaced persons, the destruction of housing, educational institutions, and infrastructure facilities. Climate change has increased the risks of food insecurity and outbreaks of epidemics, and the number of victims of natural disasters has increased. The article states that UNDP experts see the causes of hysteresis in mismanagement: an inadequate response to the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing military conflicts, the consequences of which go beyond the borders of war-torn countries, insufficient efforts to mitigate the consequences of climate change. The established HDI trend can be changed by a new outlook, improved policies, and institutions that will contribute to the production of global public goods. Keywords: human Development Index, hysteresis phenomenon, economic development, world economy, sustainable development goals.