Modelling the Sustainable Link Between Tourism and Economic Development in Africa

This study examines the link between tourism and economic growth in four African nations from 1995 to 2019, aligning its findings with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure). The research employs a three-step methodology. First, a likelihood-based panel cointegration method identifies long-term relationships. Second, an ARMA intervention model determines the variable that best fits the model. Third, the bootstrap panel Granger causality test, accounting for structural breaks, explores causal relationships. The findings confirm a long-term association between tourism and economic growth, though the magnitude varies across countries. The study highlights the need for sustainable tourism policies and targeted export-oriented initiatives to stimulate economic growth while supporting SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) by addressing tourism's economic and environmental impacts.© The Author(s) 2024. Published by RITHA Publishing under the CC-BY 4.0. license, allowing unrestricted distribution in any medium, provided the original work, author attribution, title, journal citation, and DOI are properly cited.