The riddle of the sands: C02 emissions reduction and California's renewables portfolio

Development of nuclear energy in northern Alberta has been proposed as a means of reducing the environmental costs of oilsands extraction; rather than open-pit mining, steam from nuclear power plants would be used for in situ extraction of petroleum. Such development could be facilitated by the export of electricity to California, thereby facilitating achievement of the State's legislative target that 60 % of electricity come from renewable sources by 2030 and 100 % by 2045. Using a policy-oriented, grid allocation model and projections of future power requirements in California, this study determines whether there is indeed potential for Alberta to export carbon-free electricity to California to the benefit of both jurisdictions. We find that doing so could reduce California's CO 2 emissions in the electricity sector by some 70 to 85 %. However, if California decided to rely more on in-house generation of nuclear power, the market available to Alberta would be constrained by the extent to which the State exploits nuclear capacity. It is also constrained by the extent to which the load profile can be altered and the ability to exploit wind and solar regimes that differ from those currently used to generate power. • Environmental damage from oilsands extraction can be reduced using nuclear energy. • Projected 157 % increase in California electric load due to EVs, AI and data centers. • Eschewing nuclear and fossil-fuel energy will require imports of non-carbon power. • Alberta nuclear energy can help California achieve climate targets for electricity. • Electricity demand from EVs will challenge California carbon-neutral policies.