An Analysis of Heuristics And Probability With A Special Reference On Small Sample Fallacy And Representativeness Heuristics

Fallacies and biases are imperative elements while making judgements and decisions. These fallacies often affect the credibility and the final outcome of various research. One such fallacy is the small sample fallacy and the representativeness heuristics. In a small sample fallacy individuals often misunderstand the information derived the small sample, this leads to a cognitive bias. The study focuses on Tossing a coin problem, hospital problem and IQ problem to understand the small sample fallacy and the famous Lind problem is taken to understand the representativeness heuristics. Based on the results, it could be understood that Fallacies of both small sample and heuristics exists even on students with strong statistical background and humans tend to have when it comes to choosing and making decisions, the fallacy that they hold within themselves often tend to mislead them in making day to day decisions