Estimating real-time reproduction number for HPV infection in Xinjiang, China

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in Xinjiang, estimate the real-time reproduction number ( $R_{t}$ ) of HPV infection, evaluate the effectiveness of local prevention and control policies, and provide a theoretical basis for cervical cancer (CC) control strategies in the region. Methods: Using the R0 package, the R software was employed to estimate the dynamic changes in the real-time reproduction number ( $R_{t}$ ) of HPV infection in Xinjiang from January 2015 to December 2019. Four methods—Maximum Likelihood Estimation (ML), Exponential Growth (EG), Sequential Bayesian (SB), and Time-Dependent (TD)—were used to calculate the $R_{t}$ values. The study compared the results from these methods to determine the most reliable approach for estimating HPV transmission. Results: Among the four methods, the TD method provided the best fit for observed and predicted cases. The estimated overall $R_{t}$ was 1.1381 (95% CI: 1.0762–1.1972). For the periods 2015–2017 and 2017–2019, the $R_{t}$ values were 1.2827 and 1.0544, respectively. Notably, the Rt value showed a downward trend after 2017 but remained above 1, indicating continued transmission of HPV. Conclusion: Although HPV infection rates in Xinjiang appear to be decreasing, the persistent $R_{t}$ values suggest that HPV transmission has not been fully controlled. This highlights the urgent need for strengthened prevention and control measures to reduce HPV-related cervical cancer risk in the region.