Long term emission and simulation on air quality from residential coal burning in China

Abstract Residential coal burning (RCB) is a notable contribution source of airborne pollution in China. To address this, a suite of control policies has been implemented, leading to a shift in the energy structure and a limitation in pollution emission within RCB sector. This study presents emission inventories for SO 2 , NO x , CO, and PM 2.5 from RCB between 2010 and 2020, utilizing both published and measured emission factors (EFs). Furthermore, the emission amounts of pollution in year 2030 and 2050 were projected. Since 2010 to 2020, emission of pollution from RCB sector has demonstrated a noticeable decreasing trend, especially in policy priority regions. The emission amounts in policy priority regions are at a similar level to those in the South region. The most substantial reductions were observed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, with decreases of 69.8%, 74.2%, 74.8%, 79.8% 60.6% for SO 2 , NO x , CO, PM 2.5 and BC respectively. Finally, the updated emission data used to calibrate the emission in GEOS-Chem model and to simulated national particle and gas pollution concentration in heating season emitted from RCB for year 2020 and 2030. The simulation results demonstrate a migration in the emission intensity center in the Northeast region. For SO 2 , NO 2 and PM 2.5 , the RCB contribution decreased from 3.1, 18.3 and 19.9 μg m −3 in 2020 to 1.8, 11.6 and 9.8 μg m −3 in 2030, respectively. The SO 2 , NO 2 and PM 2.5 impact from RCB was −0.03 to 0.29, 0.61 to 7.04 and 1.2 to 2.9 μg m −3 on average in 2030 which shown a minor impact on ambient pollution in BTH region during heating season.