Electricity- and hydrogen-driven energy system sector-coupling in net-zero CO2 emission pathways
Electricity- and hydrogen-based sector coupling contributes to realizing the transition towards greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system. Energy system and integrated assessment models show that, to follow pathways compatible with the European policy target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, large amounts of renewable electricity and H<sub>2</sub> need to be generated, mostly by scaling-up wind and solar energy production capacity. With a set of such models, under jointly adopted deep decarbonisation scenario assumptions, we here show that the ensuing direct penetration of electricity and H<sub>2</sub> in final energy consumption may rise to average shares of around 60% and 6%, respectively, by 2050. We demonstrate that electrification proves the most cost-efficient decarbonisation route in all economic sectors, while the direct use of H<sub>2</sub> in final energy consumption provides a relatively small, though essential, contribution to deep decarbonisation. We conclude that the variance observed across results from different models reflects the uncertainties that abound in the shape of deep decarbonisation pathways, in particular with regard to the role of H<sub>2</sub>.
Authors
- Amirhossein Fattahi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0717-2257)
- Maria Kannavou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0538-6534)
- Panagiotis Fragkos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3596-0661)
- Will Usher (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9367-1791)
- Bob van der Zwaan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5871-7643)
- Francesco Dalla Longa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6390-9842)
- Francesco Lombardi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7624-5886)
- Daniel Huppmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7729-7389)
- Theofano Fotiou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6552-6199)
- Mark Dekker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3543-6889)
- Renato Rodrigues (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5863-5514)
- Johannes Emmerling (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0916-9913)
- Felix Schreyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0376-2599)
- Detlef Peter van Vuuren (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0398-2831)
- Stefan Pfenninger (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8420-9498)
- Robert Pietzcker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9403-6711)
- Giannis Tolios
Institutions
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (NL)
- RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (IT)
- Information Technology for Market Leadership (Greece) (GR)
- Johns Hopkins University SAIS Bologna Center (IT)
- Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences (NL)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- KTH Royal Institute of Technology (SE)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Delft University of Technology (NL)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2025-02-04
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56365-0
- Citations
- 48
- Primary Topic
- Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 34.33
Funders
- European Commission
- Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Horizon 2020 Framework Programme