A multi-source data-driven approach for navigation safety integrating computational intelligence and Bayesian networks

Ships often face various risks when sailing at sea, ranging from harsh natural environments to complex traffic conditions. To reduce the impact of these risks on ships and crews, this paper proposes a navigation risk assessment method that integrates computational intelligence (CI) techniques, such as fuzzy logic, with Bayesian networks (BNs) and utility theory. Firstly, a navigation risk assessment system is established using maritime data and expert knowledge, which evaluates risks from a spatial perspective by considering factors such as safeguard and accident conditions across different regions. Secondly, a fuzzy logic-based numerical and expert data transformation method is proposed to derive the prior probabilities of risk factors in BNs. The weighted fuzzy rule base is used to capture the dependencies among the risk factors. Finally, the probability distribution of navigation risk is determined by combining the prior probability and the dependencies, which are converted into risk index values through utility theory. Taking the grid-based navigation risk assessment of the South China Sea as an example, the effectiveness of this method is verified. The results of the study provide theoretical support for navigation risk assessment based on multi-source data and provide a reference for formulate maritime regulatory policies.