Stellar X-Ray Variability and Planetary Evolution in the DS Tucanae System

Abstract We present an analysis of four Chandra observations of the 45 Myr old DS Tuc binary system. We observed X-ray variability of both stars on timescales from hours to months, including two strong X-ray flares from star A. The implied flaring rates are in agreement with past observations made with XMM-Newton, though these rates remain imprecise due to the relatively short total observation time. We find a clear, monotonic decline in the quiescent level of the star by a factor of 1.8 across 8 months, suggesting stellar variability that might be due to an activity cycle. If proven through future observations, DS Tuc A would be the youngest star for which a coronal activity cycle has been confirmed. The variation in our flux measurements across the four visits is also consistent with the scatter in empirical stellar X-ray relationships with Rossby number. In simulations of the possible evolution of the currently super-Neptune-sized planet DS Tuc A b, we find a range of scenarios for the planet once it reaches a typical field age of 5 Gyr, from Neptune size down to a completely stripped super-Earth. Improved constraints on the planet's mass in the future would significantly narrow these possibilities. We advocate for further Chandra observations to better constrain the variability of this important system.