Prediction and Analysis of the Impact of Expanding Domestic Adoption of Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters

This study involved two research projects aimed at predicting and analyzing the impact of increasing the adoption of heat pump water heaters as an alternative for household heating. First, we assessed the effects of replacing existing household boilers with heat pump water heaters for space heating and hot water supply during winter, focusing on electricity demand and greenhouse gas reductions. The results showed that winter average power demand increased by approximately 20%, while greenhouse gas emissions decreased by about 15% compared to previous levels. Next, we analyzed the effect of heat pump water heater adoption on peak electricity demand. To simplify the evaluation, we assumed the use of thermal energy storage and established two operational scenarios for the heat pump water heaters. We examined hourly changes in power demand for each scenario on the day of maximum electricity demand. In the real-time load-following operation scenario, peak power demand increased by 11.7%, while the storage-based load-following operation maintained the peak power level.