System Dynamics-Based Integrated Benefit Analysis of Low-Carbon Management Process of Municipal Solid Waste

With rapid economic development, the amount of the municipal solid waste (MSW) generated has increased dramatically. To improve the socio-economic benefits and environmental impacts of the low-carbon management of MSW, it is crucial to identify the drivers of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from MSW treatment and assess their systematic and comprehensive benefits. The factor decomposition method is one of the most commonly used methods focused on identifying GHG emission-influencing factors, while the system dynamics (SD) method is commonly used to analyze the causal relationships between linear and nonlinear variables in complex dynamic systems. Unlike existing studies that account for and evaluate MSW from a static perspective, this paper innovatively combines the LMDI-SD model to identify and quantify the GHG emission drivers of MSW and evaluate the benefits of decarbonizing the MSW management in China from a comprehensive and systematic perspective. The results show that the dominant factor driving MSW GHG emissions from 2010 to 2022 is the economic development factor, ∆EED, while the intensity of MSW generation ∆EGI and the structure of MSW treatment ∆ETS play a stronger inhibiting role. Based on this, the SD model is constructed to simulate different scenarios, and the analysis shows that increasing the waste separation rate (S3) is the most effective measure to improve the socio-economic benefits and environmental impacts of the system. Compared with the base scenario, the socio-economic benefits and environmental impacts in 2050, for example, are increased by 82.8% and 43.4%, respectively. Improving the utilization rate of landfill gas (S1), reducing the per capita amount of MSW generated (S4) and increasing the incineration rate of MSW (S2) also have significant advantages for the improvement of benefits. Finally, some policy recommendations for the improvement of the comprehensive benefits of low-carbon MSW management systems are proposed to help policymakers make appropriate decisions.