Methods for Analyzing Avionics Reliability Reflecting Atmospheric Radiation in the Preliminary Development Phase: An Integrated Failure Rate Analysis

Advances in deep submicron semiconductor technology have increased the significance of studying soft errors caused by atmospheric radiation in avionics systems. Atmospheric radiation particles, such as protons and neutrons, can induce Single Event Upsets (SEUs) in sensitive electronic components, leading to system malfunctions and data corruption. Traditional reliability analysis based on older IC or LSI components may fail to account for radiation-induced effects. However, modern avionics systems equipped with state-of-the-art VLSI components are increasingly susceptible to Single Event Upsets (SEUs), potentially leading to underestimated failure rates in these advanced systems. This study introduces an integrated failure rate analysis that incorporates both the physics of failure rates resulting from aging and wear-out and soft error rates induced by atmospheric radiation. The proposed failure rate analysis of the reliability of avionics operating at altitudes of up to 18 km by combining the physics of failure rates with radiation-induced failure rates was derived using a semi-empirical SEU estimation method. Case studies using the Zynq 7000 board, sourced from AMD (San Jose, CA, USA), confirmed that the integrated failure rate analysis provides more accurate reliability predictions compared to conventional analysis. This approach is expected to improve the accuracy of safety assessments during the preliminary development stages, leading to a shortened development timeline and enhanced design quality.