Unearthing the nexus: latifundia, earthquakes, and the emergence of the Sicilian Mafia

Abstract This paper explores the historical origins of the Mafia and its roots in the Sicilian latifundia. By employing earthquake intensity as an instrumental variable to tackle endogeneity concerns, our study reveals a significant relationship between the presence of the Mafia during its initial historical appearances in the second half of the 19th century and the characteristics of latifundia. Latifundia, distinguished by large landowners and extensive agriculture, including the rotation of single-crop, pasture, and fallow lands, is found to be closely linked to this heightened Mafia presence. Moreover, our analysis rules out contemporary socio-economic factors by considering a set of control variables such as agricultural proxies. These findings highlight a persistent historical pattern of inequality, proxied by the spread of latifundia, underscoring the enduring influence of the medieval feudal system, transformed into latifundia, on social dynamics. Our findings suggest that policies aimed at reducing the concentration of land ownership and promoting land reform could effectively have curbed the emergence of organized crime in areas with a history of comparatively higher land ownership inequality.