Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios

Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024 and discussions about new sanctions on natural gas as well as the threat of further supply disruptions continue to pose uncertainty for European markets. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM) to investigate the necessity of Russian gas exports for European gas consumption. Our results of different scenarios indicate that the EU’s gas consumption can be largely satisfied in all demand and Russian supply scenarios. This result holds also for a complete disruption of Russian exports to the EU thanks to diversification and some demand side response. • We analyze twelve scenarios with a numerical model of the global natural gas market. • Even a full disruption of Russian supplies to the EU can be compensated. • Additional imports are largely covered by LNG. • Current plans for new EU regasification capacities appear excessive. • Russia redirects flows to the Asian market, even if relations to the EU improved.