Export–Import Activity and Its Assessment: The Ukrainian Case

The development of export–import activity at all levels of the national economic system is an important factor and the result of globalization and country integration in the world economy. The elaboration of sound public policy related to export–import activity is based on its assessment and analysis. The goal of this article is the systematization and development of methodological support for the evaluation of the export–import activity of the national economy, including the development of its technology and a conceptual assessment model, which is presented in a structural–logical–semantic form, and the analysis and forecasting of export–import activity using the proposed model. To achieve the research goal, quantitative methods were used: the method of integral taxonomic indicators of development and efficiency, the method of forecasting based on trend models, multivariate factor analysis, and the modified method of cointegration of time series. A set of indicators for the export–import activity “development–effectiveness” matrix was proposed, and their dichotomies were studied. To ensure the reliability and objectivity of the export–import activity assessment, a methodological basis, which is detailed by structural elements, was formed. The model was constructed and tested based on monthly data on the export–import activity of Ukraine for the years 2021–2023.