Projecting Barrier Beach Vulnerability to Waves and Sea-Level Rise Under Climate Change

Long-term impacts of sea-level changes and trends in storm magnitude and frequency along the Mediterranean coasts are key aspects of effective coastal adaptation strategies. In enclosed basins such as a gulf, this requires a step beyond global and regional analysis toward high-resolution modeling of hazards and vulnerabilities at different time scales. We present the compound future projection of static (relative sea level) and dynamic (wind-wave) impacts on the geomorphological evolution of a vulnerable sandy coastal plan located in south Sardinia (west Mediterranean Sea). Based on local temporal trends in Hs (8 mm yr−1) and sea level (5.4 mm yr−1), a 2-year return time flood scenario at 2100 shows the flattening of the submerged morphologies triggering the process of marine embayment. The research proposes adaptation strategies to be adopted to design the projected new coastal area under vulnerabilities at local and territorial scales.