An Analysis of the Causal Relationship between Population Changes and Housing Market using Lag Distribution Model

This study analyzed the causality between population changes and housing price fluctuations by applying a distributed lag model and Granger causality test. First, the causality between housing sale prices and the three demographic factors was analyzed. The analysis results revealed that marriage and housing sale prices mutually influence each other, while housing sale prices affect mortality, and birth rates are influenced by housing sale prices. Next, the causality between housing lease prices (jeonse) and the three demographic factors was analyzed. The results showed no bidirectional Granger causality between housing lease prices and any of the three demographic factors. This indicates that birth rates, mortality, and marriage do not have mutual influences with housing lease prices. The findings of this study revealed that changes in housing sale prices have causality with demographic changes, whereas housing lease prices (jeonse) do not exhibit such causality. Therefore, a key policy implication is that demographic changes must be closely analyzed and addressed to ensure the stability of the real estate market in the future.