Study on structural factors of housing price fluctuations : Focusing on Time Series and Breakpoint Analysis

The results of the autoregressive time series analysis (ARIMAX) indicate that housing supply-demand balance was a significant variable in the Seoul metropolitan area, while autoregressive terms and jeonse prices were identified as key factors in non-metropolitan regions. In the breakpoint regression analysis (BREAKLS), during the downturn period, sale prices and jeonse prices were significant in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. During the upturn period, supply-demand balance exhibited a strong influence in the metropolitan area, while supply-demand balance and money supply were significant in non-metropolitan areas. Notably, in the highly volatile metropolitan area, supply-demand balance was confirmed as a critical determinant of housing prices during the upturn period.