MODELING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND HABITAT SUITABILITY OF THE EGYPTIAN FRUIT BAT (ROUSETTUS AEGYPTIACUS) IN EGYPT

The Egyptian fruit bat (Rousettus aegyptiacus) is a keystone species in the Egyptian ecosystems, providing essential services like pollination and seed dispersal. However, its role as a reservoir for zoonotic diseases poses a significant health risk. The present study aimed to investigate the current and future spatial distribution patterns of the Egyptian fruit bat and evaluate the impact of environmental factors such as bioclimatic variables, ecoregion, and land cover on their habitat suitability. Using distribution records collected from the published papers, the data collected from the field surveys, and the environmental variables, a predictive model was developed using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach to determine its habitat suitability across Egypt. We incorporated a range of ecological covariates such as elevation above sea level, temperature, precipitation, land use, and land cover. The model output indicates that the Nile Valley, Delta, and Dakhla Oasis are highly suitable areas for R. aegyptiacus. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus were 7707.37 km2 on average, while the bat's range is expected to increase slightly by 20.1% in 2050 and by 11.5% in 2070. We found that population is the most important ecological driver of bat distribution in Egypt. The results emphasized the importance of bioclimatic variables and land cover in shaping its distribution. This knowledge can contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies, ultimately aiding in the preservation of the Egyptian fruit bat and its crucial ecological roles.