Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid in Kyrgyzstan? Empirical Evidence from the Fourier, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

The present study aims to assess the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis within the Kyrgyzstan economy. To this end, an analysis is conducted utilizing annual GDP, export, and import data from Kyrgyzstan during the period spanning from 1992 to 2022. The Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) causality approach is employed to examine the underlying causality relationships between the variables. The FTY results indicate a unidirectional causality relationship from exports to imports and from GDP to exports in Kyrgyzstan. These findings suggest that the export-led growth hypothesis is invalid in the Kyrgyz economy and that the export-led economic growth hypothesis is valid. The results imply that economic growth encourages exports and exports encourage imports in Kyrgyzstan.