Les trajectoires d'attractivité résidentielle des petites villes côtières du Nord de la France face aux effets du changement climatique: Méthode mixte de recherche et identification des indicateurs

The latest IPCC report describes the effects of climate change on natural and human systems worldwide. While uncertainties about the physical effects are diminishing, other indirect effects of climate change, notably on mental health and the well-being of populations, are being evoked. The aim of the thesis being carried out by the TVES laboratory at the Université du Littoral Côté d'Opale (ULCO) is to explore the potential effects of climate change on the residential attractiveness of four coastal towns in northern France: Wimereux, Wissant, Groffliers and Ault. These areas are echoing each other on this subject: their attractiveness is underpinned by the presence of amenities, while certain sectors are particularly threatened by the retreat of the coastline and/or the risk of marine submersion. Taking a systemic and socio-spatial approach, considering the components of these systems as interrelated (Brunet, 1979) will enable us to establish the potential effects across different dimensions of coastal systems: political, regulatory, physical, social, societal, etc. The aim of this paper is to present the research framework developed for this study. The choice was made to conceptualize attractiveness through the notion of capability as “combinations of alternatives and things that a person is capable of being or doing” (Nussbaum and Sen, 1993). This approach makes it possible to apprehend this attractiveness as a whole, influenced not only by the elements inherent to the territory (e.g., buildable space), but also by the people who live in and use the territory. As their residential choices depend on their representations and perceptions of the area, coastal risks, or even changes in weather conditions linked to climate change, it is essential that we take an interest in them. We will present the mixed research method developed to identify the various indicators - quantitative or qualitative - that will enable us to meet this exploration objective.