Identifying key risks to the stability of Ukrainian universities during wartime

Ukrainian universities operate under uncertain conditions and numerous challenges during wartime, significantly affecting their stability. This paper aims to identify and classify the key risks to the stability of Ukrainian universities during wartime and propose proactive tools for their mitigation. The study focuses on financial, personnel, and social risks, which are highlighted as the most critical under current circumstances. The data were sourced from the official websites of 10 universities, Open Budget, and the official websites of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The methodology combines theoretical analysis and statistical evaluation, including calculating marginal income – representing the portion of income covered by variable costs – and the operating margin ratio, defined as the ratio of marginal income to total income. Financial risks include a 7.9% reduction in education budget allocations, decreased subsidies, and insufficient state support. Personnel risks are analyzed through indicators, e.g., uncompetitive average hourly wages, leading to staff attrition and reduced motivation. The findings propose a multi-level classification of risks, categorizing them into external and internal with subcategories such as financial, personnel, and social ones. Non-traditional financial measures, such as unpaid leave and allowance reductions, were observed as short-term crisis strategies but require further evaluation to assess their long-term impact. The paper contributes to academic discourse by outlining challenges to university stability during wartime and providing a foundation for future research into effective risk mitigation strategies.