Research on spread of panic emotional based on the epidemic mechanism under emergencies

Frequent emergencies always induce panic in the public and cause crowd chaos and casualties. To study the spread laws of panic in the crowd, an NEMSC (Normal-Expose- Mild Panicky-Severe Panicky-Cool) model for the spread of panic emotions was proposed based on the infectious disease model. An improved panic emotion propagation model considering intervention factors was established and the number of trends of crowd emotion contagion was observed by using the NEMSC model and its improved model, and the simulation results were compared and analyzed. Then, take the COVID-19 epidemic and the stampede on the Bund in Shanghai as examples for application simulation. The results show that the NEMSC model can describe the spread of panic emotions in crowds in emergencies, and the intervention factors can effectively inhibit the spread of different panic emotions, which is helpful for emergency decision-making management.