Spatiotemporal Variation of Vegetation and Its Responses to Climate Change in Pakistan

Abstract Changes in vegetation cover and its relationship with climate factors are crucial for ecosystem stability, especially in arid and semiarid regions like Pakistan. However, the impact of temperature and precipitation fluctuations on vegetation dynamics in these regions remains uncertain. Pakistan's unique ecology and complex climate-vegetation relationships make it an ideal location for studying vegetation changes. This study examines changes in vegetation coverage and its response to climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) from 2001 to 2021. This study utilized satellite data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at a 250m spatial resolution and statistical analyses, including correlation calculations and multiple linear regression. We aimed to practically investigate whether and why vegetation distributes imbalanced along the entire country,is essential for adaptation to global climate change. The findings highlight (1) a notable upward trend in mean Normalized Different Vegetation Index (NDVI) over the past 21 years, with a significant increase from 0.19 to 0.33, indicating an overall enhancement; (2) the NDVI analysis reveals that about 32% of area exhibits an increasing trend, with high vegetation health, while other areas show a declining trend; (3) the results indicate that NDVI increased across Pakistan's. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and Kashmir showed increasing NDVI, with 27% slight development and 9% dramatic development. In contrast, Baluchistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Sindh experienced NDVI degradation, with 63% slight degradation and 1% dramatic degradation; (4) the results show that precipitation is the main driver of vegetation growth in Pakistan, accounting for 70% of variability, while temperature contributes around 30%. Overall, this study improves our understanding of Pakistan's changing vegetation, identifying key factors and informing strategies for sustainable ecosystem management and climate change adaptation.