Drivers of influence of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in East Africa: Evidence from Sudan

Recent studies show that political and security competition between states in the Middle East vis-à-vis the Horn of Africa has intensified since the Arab Spring. This competition has exacerbated instability in fragile states such as Sudan. However, there is limited research on the influence of the Gulf States in Sudan. Using the neoclassical realist agent-structure framework, data from the Formal Bilateral Influence Capacity (FBIC) index and interviews, this article examines the growing involvement of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan. Over the past decade, these states have expanded their presence, driven by domestic and international factors related to security needs and perceived threats. This research sheds light on the Gulf states’ strategic manoeuvring in Sudan amid evolving geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and the ongoing Sudanese conflict.