Revisiting the individual-level correlates of emigration intentions: Evidence from Central America

Abstract Central American countries have grappled with various challenges in recent decades, including economic hardship, insecurity, corruption, and democratic backsliding. In theory, these factors—individually and jointly—contribute to migration. This article builds on a rich body of knowledge and revisits the individual-level correlates of emigration intentions in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. I employ a comprehensive dataset spanning over a decade of AmericasBarometer surveys by the Latin American Public Opinion Project from 2006 to 2018–19. The empirical results, which rely on probit maximum likelihood estimators, sketch a statistical outline of the correlates of emigration intentions and reveal to what extent they have changed over time. The statistical analysis confirms that multiple factors correlate to emigration intentions. But a closer look reveals that two variables are more consistent over time and across countries: receiving remittances and crime victimization.