Decarbonizing provincial construction industry under the ''dual carbon'' goals: Assessing reduction capacities and charting optimal pathways

• Developed a framework for construction decarbonization and emission reduction. • Quantified drivers of carbon emissions in the provincial construction industry. • Social factors hold the highest weight in the evaluation system. • Fujian is expected to meet "dual carbon'' goal under baseline and low carbon scenarios. • Results inform emission-reduction and energy-saving strategies in developing cities. Given the construction industry's substantial role in global energy consumption and carbon emissions, reducing CO 2 emissions from this sector is crucial for achieving "dual carbon'' goal. This study examines recent carbon emissions trends in Fujian Province's construction industry and identifies key drivers using the GDIM model. Through the entropy weight-TOPSIS method, it quantifies the influence of economic, energy, social and technical factors on carbon emissions and evaluates emission reduction capacities over time. Additionally, the extended STIRPAT model establishes equations to dissect carbon emission relationships, while scenario analysis predicts future CO 2 emissions and reductions. Results show that: (1) GDP stands out as the primary positive driver, contributing 53.04 %, while CG serves as the strongest negative influence at −41.38 %. (2) Social factors hold the highest weight in the evaluation system at 32.77 %. (3) Under scenario simulations, both baseline scenario and green and low-carbon scenario can meet the carbon targets: the baseline scenario peaks at 303.19 million tons by 2030, while the green and low-carbon scenario peaks at 279.25 million tons by 2025. This study provides a scientific basis and decision-making support for provincial emission reduction strategies and carbon management, aiding the government in formulating targeted policies for the construction industry's low-carbon transition.