Coupling renewal and sprawl processes on block level to simulate urban residential growth in Berlin

• A block-level modeling framework to simulate urban residential growth was proposed. • This framework integrates renewal and sprawl processes in urban residential growth. • The competition between these two processes was considered in the modeling framework. • Berlin's residential area in 2040 was predicted and compared to the urban housing plan. Urban residential growth modeling has attracted a lot of attention from scholars as an essential tool for urban planning and sustainable development. This study presents a framework for simulating urban residential growth by integrating renewal and sprawl processes. Using Berlin as a case study, it evaluates the framework's performance and predicts the distribution of urban residential areas in 2040 under different population scenarios. The findings reveal that independently analyzing the driving mechanisms of renewal and sprawl processes enhances the ability to capture urban residential dynamics. Urban residential growth in Berlin predominantly follows renewal pathways. Modeling the competitive selection between renewal and sprawl processes, while prioritizing renewal, significantly improves simulation performance. Compared to the null model, the proposed framework achieves higher simulation accuracy, with a 1.72 % improvement in the Figure of Merit (FoM). Between 2020 and 2040, new urban residential areas in Berlin are expected to concentrate in the north, east, and south, forming two distinct belt-shaped regions. This framework provides valuable insights for enhancing urban residential simulations and serves as a reference for integrated modeling of renewal and sprawl processes.