Armenia and Türkiye between conflict and cooperation: explaining (with) disaster diplomacy

Over the past 30 years, the relationship between the neighbouring states of Armenia and Türkiye has been greatly influenced by a politicised atmosphere and ongoing debates about their shared history, alongside efforts at reconciliation. It is noteworthy that, in a global context increasingly characterised by both anthropogenic and natural calamities, the phenomenon of (shared) disasters as it pertains to the dynamics of Armenia-Türkiye relations has garnered relatively scant scholarly attention. This study investigates instances of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic on a global scale and the Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquakes that occurred on 6 February 2023, which serve as disasters possessing diplomatic and symbolic significance that could facilitate a transition from a state of conflict to one of cooperative peace between these two nations. Utilising a disaster diplomacy framework and incorporating data obtained from Armenia and Türkiye, this paper posits that disasters may function as a substantial catalyst in fostering diplomatic conditions and advancing efforts towards rapprochement.