Impact of climate change on high wind and solar optimal mixes and system costs: the case of France

Abstract. The electricity generation sector is undergoing profound transformations via the introduction of wind and solar energies. It is impacted by changing climate conditions, both on the demand and the supply side. The impact of a change in wind and solar resource coupled to the change in demand has however not been studied in regard of its effect on optimal investment decisions. We tackle this issue through the use of regional climate projections coupled to a minimalistic electricity system modeling tool. We find that for the case of France, increasing levels of climate change tend to decrease the optimal penetration of wind energy, while the optimal level of installed solar energy remains constant. We propose that this is explained by the interplay of an average effect coupled to a demand to generation correlation. To the contrary of previous literature, we find that the sole impact of climate change has no adverse consequences on system total costs, with adaptation measures being less attractive economically than their passive counterparts. This highlights the importance of specifying the working hypotheses and phenomena taken into account when issuing policymaking advice, and calls for further research exploring how combining all processes related to climate change impact all relevant elements of the electricity generation sector. We also encourage continued research at the climate and energy interface, to increase the precision and interpretability of similar studies.