Features of seismic activity in Palmyride fold belt (Syria): a quantitative analysis

Palmyride fold belt is considered a keystone region to understand the tectonic and geological evolution of the northern part of Arabian plate. The Palmyride region was affected by the last major seismic event of magnitude MS 5.6, which occurred on 24th December 1996’. In this study, a special earthquake catalogue for Palmyride fold belt zone covering the period 1969-2020 has been compiled based on published seismic bulletins with the goal of deepening our understanding of the nature of this active seismic zone. A quantitative analysis of this catalogue showed that the seismic activity of the Palmyra fold zone during the last 50 years has produced moderate magnitude events. Generally, Palmyride fold belt is characterized by moderate instrumental seismic activity regarding the total number of recorded events (1444 events) and the maximum observed magnitude (MS 5.6). The magnitude of completeness has been estimated to be 2.3.The Gutenberg-Richter relationship inferred that the b-value is about 0.87 using the maximum likelihood method. Accordingly, the return period for an event of magnitude 7.0 is assessed to be 600 years. The maximum likelihood Kijko’s procedure has predicted the maximum possible magnitude to be 6.37. Such large earthquake is probable regarding the last historical earthquake occurred on 13 January 1043 AD. This new study has better quantified the seismic potential of the area and shows the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging earthquakes. This paper provides a geological framework and analysis of seismic activity in the Palmyride Fold Belt in Syria, a crucial topic for understanding the tectonic dynamics of the region.