Eliciting Ambiguity with Mixing Bets

Preferences for mixing can reveal ambiguity perception and attitude on a single event. The validity of the approach is discussed for multiple preference classes, including maxmin, maxmax, variational, and smooth second-order preferences. An experimental implementation suggests that participants perceive almost as much ambiguity for the stock index and actions of other participants as they do for the Ellsberg urn, indicating the importance of ambiguity in real-world decision-making. (JEL C72, D11, D12, D81)

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Publication Details

Journal
American Economic Journal Microeconomics
Published
2025-01-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20220370
Primary Topic
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
Type
article
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article

Eliciting Ambiguity with Mixing Bets

Patrick Schmidt
American Economic Journal Microeconomics
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
article

Eliciting Ambiguity with Mixing Bets

Patrick Schmidt
article en

Abstract

Preferences for mixing can reveal ambiguity perception and attitude on a single event. The validity of the approach is discussed for multiple preference classes, including maxmin, maxmax, variational, and smooth second-order preferences. An experimental implementation suggests that participants perceive almost as much ambiguity for the stock index and actions of other participants as they do for the Ellsberg urn, indicating the importance of ambiguity in real-world decision-making. (JEL C72, D11, D12, D81)

American Economic Journal MicroeconomicsVol. 17(1)
University of Zurich (CH)
Openalex Percentile: Top 99%
Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
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