Tunisia will suffer instability risks

Significance The government is reordering spending, rather than increasing it, while aiming for a gradual fiscal consolidation and markedly less reliance on foreign financing and the conditionality it entails. President Kais Saied aims to punish a business class that he sees as "corrupt" and to build support among the working class. Impacts EU border security and migration aid to Tunisia may come under increasing scrutiny, if it is linked to rights abuses against migrants. Fearing further repression, Tunisia's private sector will largely refrain from vocalising opposition to Saied's economic policies. Tunisian foreign policy could align increasingly with Algeria, prompted by the latter's readiness to extend economic support.