Seoul and Pyongyang will face more volatility and risk

Significance Yoon’s People Power Party (PPP) has seen a surprising surge in its popularity. Although arrests and dismissals among the top brass could jeopardise defence readiness, Pyongyang thus far has not exploited South Korea’s vulnerability. US President Donald Trump’s outreach to Pyongyang remains a source of concern in Seoul. Impacts The PPP’s accusations around electoral fraud will poison and polarise politics, stoking violence as in the recent storming of a court. Yoon’s camp hopes for Trump’s backing, but the Korean hard right opposes the outreach to Pyongyang and paying more for resident US forces. Although Kim Jong-un mistrusts Trump, he could be tempted by potential nuclear recognition and a new Southern government offering aid. China will raise economic pressure on North Korea to rein in its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.