South African political elite's perception of Russia: social media data sentiment analysis

Although bilateral relations between Russia and South Africa are often described as long-standing and constructive, sentiment towards Moscow amongst South Africa’s political elite varies from party to party. This is particularly evident in statements made on personal social media accounts by African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance (DA) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) members on the topic. While there are many ways to analyze bilateral relations between countries, this article focuses on the less common method of social media sentiment analysis. Aggregated data on the topic of Russia from social media posts made by nine prominent South African political figures and one organization (the Department of International Relations and Cooperation) was analyzed, with a particular focus on the ratio of positive, neutral and negative statements, correlations between Russia-related events, the frequency of Russia mentions, as well as topics mentioned most often in the Russian context. The results showed a peak in mentions of Russia in the years before or of Russia-Africa Summits and BRICS events and a predominance of neutral statements towards Russia compared to negative or positive ones. The analyzed social media statements on Russia mainly stayed within the topics of the Russia-Africa Summits, BRICS and the Special Military Operation in Ukraine (for the ANC) and the Special Military Operation and “Troll Farm” issue amongst the opposition, particularly DA members. In addition, the number of mentions seemed to correlate with trade volume, demonstrated most clearly by China’s example. Most of the language on the topic was neutral, which fits into South Africa’s position of non-alignment, meanwhile the majority of posts on the topic were made by DIRCO and President Ramaphosa. The rest of the accounts made little or no mention of Russia and other countries, posting on domestic issues instead.