Demographic trends in the development of rural settlement areas

The demographic situation in rural areas of Ukraine has become increasingly significant in light of the administrative-territorial reform of 2020, the country's European integration course, and contemporary social challenges, including the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war. Negative demographic trends, such as depopulation, population aging, and declining birth rates, critically affect national security and the sustainable development of regions, highlighting the importance of this research. Objective of the study: to evaluate demographic trends in the rural areas of the Zhytomyr region as a foundation for the sustainable development of the region and for shaping state policies to support rural populations. The study is based on statistical data provided by the Main Department of Statistics in the Zhytomyr region, the Zhytomyr Regional Military Administration, and analytical materials from Ukrainian and international researchers. Methods of statistical analysis, graphical modeling, and comparison were employed. The research identified a persistent decline in the rural population of the Zhytomyr region—since 1995, its size has decreased by 28 %. As of 2022, rural residents account for 40.4 % of the region's total population. A significant disparity in population distribution across districts was observed, with the highest concentration in the Zhytomyr district and the lowest in the Berdychiv district. Key factors contributing to this decline include depopulation, low birth rates, migration, high mortality rates, and deteriorating living conditions. The study highlights a substantial reduction in rural birth rates, which remain below the replacement level. Factors influencing this decline include socioeconomic conditions, youth migration, the professional engagement of women, and low income levels. Simultaneously, increasing mortality rates, coupled with migration losses, exacerbate the demographic crisis. Ensuring the sustainable development of rural areas requires the implementation of comprehensive state and regional policies aimed at creating favorable conditions for living, working, and population reproduction. These policies must also consider the impact of ecological and socio-political factors, particularly the consequences of the war. The findings of the study can be utilized to develop strategies for the sustainable development of rural areas, plan demographic policies, and implement programs for the socio-economic support of rural populations.