Exploring Marine Cloud Brightening with a Reduced Complexity Model

Abstract Throughout the industrial period, anthropogenic aerosols have likely offset approximately one-third of the warming caused by greenhouse gases. Marine cloud brightening aims to capitalize on one aspect of this phenomenon to potentially mitigate global warming by enhancing cloud reflectivity through adjustments in cloud droplet concentration. This study employs a simplified yet comprehensive modeling framework, integrating an open-source parcel model for aerosol activation, a radiation transport model based on commercial computational fluid dynamics code, and assimilated meteorological data. The reduced complexity model addresses the challenges of rapid radiation transfer calculations while managing uncertainties in aerosol–cloud-radiation (ACR) parameterizations. Despite using an uncoupled ACR mechanism and omitting feedback between clouds and aerosols, our results closely align with observations, validating the robustness of our assumptions and methodology. This demonstrates that even simplified models, supported by parcel modeling and observational constraints, can achieve accurate radiation transfer calculations comparable to advanced climate models. We analyze how variations in droplets size and concentration affect cloud albedo for geoengineering applications. Optimal droplet sizes, typically within the 20–35-µm range, significantly increase cloud albedo by approximately 28%–57% across our test cases. We find that droplets transmit about 29% more solar radiation than droplets. Effective albedo changes require injection concentrations exceeding background levels by around 30%, diminishing as concentrations approach ambient levels. Considerations must also be given to the spray pattern of droplet injections, as effective deployment can influence cloud thickness and subsequently impact cloud albedo. This research provides insights into the feasibility and effectiveness of using a reduced complexity model for marine cloud brightening with frontal cyclone and stratus cumulus clouds, and emphasizes the need to also consider background droplets size and concentration than just meteorological conditions.