Prognostics of the knee osteoarthritis induced by cyclic loading activities. A model-based analysis

Repetitive mechanical stresses on the knee joint during daily activities accumulate fatigue damage in the articular cartilage (AC), leading to wear and knee osteoarthritis (KOA). Effective treatments remain limited, underscoring the need for predictive approaches to identify KOA early. This study proposes a mathematical model to estimate AC degradation under cyclic loading from walking. By integrating Miner's rule, Monte Carlo simulations, and Weibull distributions, the model predicts remaining cycles before AC loses 60% of its volume, a critical KOA threshold. Verified against a well-established model, it offers potential for personalized strategies to prevent or delay KOA progression.