MSA-Net: A Multi-Scale Information Diffusion Model Awaring User Activity Level

Modeling information diffusion on social networks can be used to guide the prediction and control of information propagation and improve the structure and functionality of social networks. Existing information diffusion prediction methods can predict information diffusion paths and its volume by modeling social network structure and user behavior. However, none of the existing methods take user activity level, which is proved to be critical in modeling the information diffusion process, into account, thus weaken the prediction accuracy. To solve this problem, this article proposes a Multi-Scale Activity Network (MSA-Net) to capture topological and historical affect features for different scales and to predict the users who will be affected at a specific future timestamp with the help of user activity level. Specifically, we first learn the network representation of three scales or levels: micro-scale, meso-scale, and macro-scale, which refers to the user level, intra-community level, and inter-community level, respectively. Then, we introduce the user activity level for each user by using user degree and average number of tweets per time unit to model the individual differences of users to achieve a more accurate prediction. Extensive experiments based on real-world datasets show that MSA-Net achieves a 6.14% improvement in terms of precision, a 6.74% improvement in terms of recall metrics, a 4.26% improvement in terms of F1-score, a 3.15% improvement in terms of MAP, and a 25.78% improvement in terms of NRMSE over the best existing baseline. The code and data are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/MSA-Net.